A mixed bag: first 100 days of Trump

Key Markets report for Monday, 5 May 2025

Last week we passed the first 100 days of the Trump Administration which has, to put it mildly, been tumultuous and difficult to keep up with. So far, Trump has signed 143 executive orders, 42 proclamations, and 42 memorandums, far surpassing previous administrations (Biden signed 9 on day one).

Delivering on campaign promises (or trying to..)

In general however, Trump seems to be largely delivering - or trying to deliver - on what he promised to his voters, starting on sweeping changes on immigration and border security with executive orders to block asylum-seekers, reinstate a national emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border, and designate drug cartels as terrorist organizations. Illegal border crossings plummeted, from 47,000 encounters in December 2024, to 8,450 encounters in February 2025, the lowest in 25 years. More than 135,000 individuals have been deported so far. Trump also pardoned 1,500 "January 6" Capitol rioters and 23 anti-abortion protesters.

In pursuit of making the US a global manufacturing superpower, Trump launched a tariffs war which is beginning to have some desired effects but also plenty of unintended or unforeseen consequences including a trade war with China which already forced Trump to blink and climb back off his maximalist objectives. Trump's drive to purge corruption from the US Government and drain the swamp has yielded substantial results and provided PR shock-value.

Tackling corruption

In addition to the Dep't. of Government Efficiency (DOGE) led by Elon Musk dismantling the industrial-scale corruption run through USAID, and the firing of thousands of federal employees, Trump signed an executive order to shut down the Department of Education and other orders demanding that universities disclose their donors. Government's Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) programs are being eliminated at the Federal Government level and the military and Trump signed executive orders banning transgenders from women's sports, declaring (gasp!) that there are only two genders.

In the meantime, the new director of FBI Kash Patel took up a thorough reform and reorganization of the swamp cesspool, the FBI. In a recent interview, Trump's new Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard revealed her department's work toward dismantling the human and child trafficking networks and announced a comprehensive investigation into the origins of Covid 19 pandemic.

Leaving the “rules-based global order” behind

On foreign policy, Trump has radically shaken up the post-World War II status quo, clearly downgrading US relationship with the EU and taking a fairly tough posture toward European powers like Britain, France and Germany. His administration has favored sovereigntist and populist movements in Europe, overtly supporting Viktor Orban in Hungary, the AfD party in Germany, Marine Le Pen in France and Câlin Georgescu in Romania. Numerous officials of his government have issued scathing criticisms of the rising repression and authoritarianism in Europe, while forging a more constructive approach toward Russia.

Trump has also taken aim at the global (in)security architecture and the "rules-based global order," by withdrawing the unconditional US support for Ukraine and exploded the underlying assumption of NATO alliance, that it will continue to enjoy full and indefinite US support. The cost of that protection racket increased sharply, from 2% of the GDP to 5%, signaling Trump's probable intention to extricate the US from NATO as he’s already done with the World Health Organization and Paris Climate Treaty. All this has drawn great wrath from the globalist cabal and the corporate media.

Strategic ambiguity, or lost at sea?

In many policy areas Trump's stated goals and intentions seem to be at odds with his actions and statements, which could reflect the "strategic ambiguity" approach but it's also left many with the impression that the administration is in over their heads, losing focus, and also credibility by committing too many mistakes, especially on foreign policy matters. While his saber-rattling toward Iran has created a dangerous situation that could escalate into a wide regional, or perhaps World War, he has acted to reduce the risk of World War over Ukraine.

In all, although Trump does appear committed to delivering on his campaign promises, there seems to be enough for everyone to love and to hate about Trump's first 100 days. His actual record is clearly a mixed bag thus far, but he does seem to be trying to do things right on the big issues that matter.

Worthy of nobel prize for peace?

Perhaps the most important one is the US relationship with Russia. Back in 2018, then German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel stated in an interview with Bild am Sontag that, "the completely shattered relationship between Russia and the U.S. was the greatest threat to peace across the globe," and that unless the two powers find common ground, "our children would inherit a dangerous and very uncertain world increasingly armed with nuclear weapons."

If Trump bungled everything else but eliminated the risk of nuclear war between the US and Russia, on that count alone, I believe he'd merit a nobel prize for peace. That is, if that prize really was what the rules-based establishment still pretends that it is.

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