BRICS or IRAC?
Key Markets report for Monday, 8 September 2025
I invented the abbreviation IRAC, which stands for India, Russia, America, China. I did not, however, invent the source that inspired it:
The image was posted on Saturday, 6 September by one Kirill Dmitriev. It is the bottom half of the full picture Dmitriev posted:
On X, Dmitriev stated that he posted this image on Instagram to his Russian followers and said that 77% of them answered that the lower picture, including the United States is better, adding that the world wants to see—and will benefit from—Russia, US, China & India partnering for peace and prosperity. Note Dmitriev’s choice of words: the world “will benefit,” not could or should.
In another Saturday post, Dmitriev shared two images: one showing Churchill, Roosevelt and Stalin sitting together at Yalta, and another showing Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump standing next to each other with the caption, “Stalin, Roosevelt & Churchill won WWII; Putin & Trump will prevent WWIII. Again, the “will,” not can, should, could… So, who is this Kirill Dmitriev - just some overly optimistic man with a Russian sounding name?
He’s a bit more than that: Dmitriev is the CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund and President Putin’s Special Envoy for investment and economic cooperation. Besides Putin himself and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, he is among the key players in Russian talks with the United states (note, his domain of expertise has nothing to do with Ukraine or warfare) and has a top role in defining the economic and financial order of the future.
What are the leaders saying?
But Dmitriev is not the only optimist among the Russian officials. Vladimir Putin himself said at the Eastern Economic Summit at Vladivostok that during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in China, he informed all the SCO leaders about his meeting with Donald Trump in Alaska. Putin said that the news was very well received by all and that nobody made any criticisms of the US government or of Donald Trump.
Trump himself has been extremely difficult to read, perhaps for good reasons but I’ll go back to two testimonies which may be coincidental, but which I nevertheless consider quite important, if true. Both were recounted to me by Susan Kokinda, as I mentioned here over the past few weeks: (1) at a campaign gathering in Michigan, Trump invited the attendees to join him in the fight against the global financier class, and (2) in cabinet meetings, Trump was talking about “our so-called enemies,” and those “who are perceived as our enemies.”
That may not be much to go on but Trump’s State Secretary Rubio did explicitly state the administration foreign policy position that the post World War II global order is more than obsolete, that it’s been weaponised against the United States and that multi=polar integrations are the new reality to be reckoned with. Because this was explicitly stated, the source is beyond suspicion, but the sincerity isn’t. Because of Trump’s thuggish style and a promiscuous relationship with the truth, many believe that his position is a deception.
Did the US and Europe agree on a division of labor?
A hypothesis about division of labor between the USA and Europe has gained a lot of attention among foreign policy observers. Supposedly, there’s an agreement among the Transatlantic allies where the Europeans will deal with Russia and the Middle East as the US focuses on confronting China. Well, there are a few problems with that hypothesis:
It makes no sense at all: the European powers couldn’t even dream about confronting Russia without US support.
Trump’s foreign policy has been consistently weakening, not strengthening the pro-war leadership in Europe.
Trump, unlike his predecessor, has reached out to Moscow and so far, the relations seem constructive and cooperative.
The list of examples could be very long. No policy measures that I’m aware of suggest that any division of labor is taking place, to the contrary. Most recently, for example, the Pentagon announced a suspension of military support programs to European countries bordering Russia. The suspension includes hundreds of millions of dollars in aid to the Baltic states, Poland, Bulgaria and Romania. To be sure, this is division of labor, kind of: we’ll do our thing without you and you can go fly a kite!
What’s coming?
In light of all these new developments and the apparent positive disposition toward Trump from Russia, one of Trump’s recent posts on TruthSocial could merit a ponder. Namely, on 30 August, he posted an image stating, “The world will soon understand | Nothing can stop what’s coming.” Significantly perhaps, in Trump’s left hand we can see Q+, referring to Q-anon.
Some commenters thought that the time stamp is also significant (as in, “watch your six o’clock!). I can’t begin to guess what Trump is trying to convey, if anything, but it could be related to his administration’s dealings with Russia and preparation to completely sideline the European powers and leave them to their own devices. Another advisor to President Putin, Anton Kobyakov may have given us a clue, again at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok:
“The West’s great geopolitical gamble is entering its decisive phase. Yet part of the West, namely Europe, can already be said to have lost. Europe today has effectively been stripped of independence in finance, energy, technology, and political choice; in effect, of sovereignty itself. Asia has taken over all of the West’s functions. The Middle East has become a new financial hub, drawing wealthy Brits away from their island. Manufacturing has shifted to China and Vietnam, and is moving further into India and other countries. Today’s largest trading hubs are Shenzhen, Singapore, Hong Kong, Dubai, and Mumbai. Technological leadership has gone to the Chinese and the Koreans. Within this framework, in about five years, Western Europe will be of no use whatsoever, not even as a consumer market.”
Perhaps this is what’s coming. Trump will push Europe under the bus and join the Brics, perhaps on condition that they be renamed Trump BRICS or, at the very least, IRAC. We may be coming to the decisive point in time when the US will make its choice known to the world. As my friend Larry Johnson put it, the choice is between being the global hegemon or a polite guest at the global banquet. This may be what Kirill Dmitriev tried to capture with his cartoon above, where the tiger, the bear, the eagle and the panda sit together as friends, sharing tea. It sounds like we’ll soon find out…
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Today’s trading signals
With Friday’s closing prices we have the following changes for the Key Markets portfolio:
