Is gold about to break to new all-time highs?

Key Markets report for Wednesday, 11 Jun 2025

The price of gold peaked on 24 April this year at about $3,400/tr.oz and since then, it has consolidated in the $200/tr.oz range between $3,200 and $3,400. However, the price is showing significant resilience and it has tended to press against the upper bound of that range of late, forming a “triangle” pattern on the daily chart:

In technical analysis, triangles are considered to be continuation patterns, suggesting that the bull market trend we’ve experienced during most of the past two years, will most likely continue. This implies that we could see gold reach new all-time highs through the remainder of this year, with an upside that’s entirely open. There’s no telling how high the price might go. Whoever attempts to set the target price for gold can’t do better than guessing.

On the other hand…

Of course, if things were that simple, I could shorten this report to one statement: “buy gold now,” and leave it at that. But chart analysis is not an exact science and price fluctuation patterns don’t always resolve themselves in predictable outcomes: a “triangle” could give way to a sharp correction instead of the trend continuation. Worse, it could do so only after a false break to the upside, and then fall back and only find some support toward its longer-term trendline at about $3,000/tr.oz.

For those who opened their long positions early enough (the readers of this newsletter should be among them), it makes sense to simply keep their long exposure. But at present, anticipating the next move and opening new long positions at current levels could be too risky. Based on my experience, it’s best to either wait for new all-time highs to buy, or with any luck, buy during a pull-back toward $3,200/tr.oz.

Options could make sense at present

For those who have read this newsletter long enough, you know that I am not a fan of trading options, but today’s situation on gold is one of those rare moments when using options might make sense. For example, traders could consider buying both calls and puts because whatever happens next, after nearly two months of consolidation, the next move - whether it is up or down - might be quite strong. Alternatively, traders could go long outright, but hedge that position with some put options, in case the price goes against them.

Still… simple trend following is best

The advantage of using trend following strategies is that we don’t have to stress too much about what happens next, and this is because we have already gone long Gold over $1,000/tr.oz. ago and have been able to ride this trend for more than 18 months. Of course, back then nobody knew where the price of gold would go, any more than we know where it will go in the next 18 months. What is clear however, is that to catch these windfalls, taking the risk early enough is essential. Trading decisions must be made daily and in the real time, without knowing the future. This is the core purpose of this newsletter.

I firmly believe that with trend following + iron discipline and patience, we can trade in many different markets (even if we know nothing about them), and do so with a certain peace of mind and confidence. It beats (literally) stressing about predicting what might happen next in the markets.

To learn more about TrendCompass reports please check our main TrendCompass web page. We encourage you to also have a read through our TrendCompass User Manual page. For U.S. investors: an investable, fully managed portfolio based on I-System TrendFollowing is available from our partner advisory (more about it here).

Today’s trading signals

With yesterday’s closing prices we have the following changes for the Key Markets portfolio: