Romanian elections and the tools of democracy

Key Markets report for Monday, 19 May 2025

​On Sunday, 18 May Romanians went to the polls for the second round of elections. The leader of the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), George Simion, who won the first round of elections by a huge margin (41% to 21%) against the pro-EU candidate Nicușor Dan, now lost with only 46.4% of the vote to Dan’s 53.6%. Somehow, in only two weeks’ time, Dan managed to improve his share of the vote by 155%. Understandably, many suspect that the elections were rigged and that Romania’s democracy has been stolen.

Those suspicions are not without merit. Romanian elections have been hotly contested ever since Călin Georgescu won the first round of presidential elections on 25 November 2024 against 13 other candidates. Panic ensued in Bucharest and in European halls of power. Georgescu ran as an independent candidate, but the media across the West labelled him as a far-right, pro-Russia ultranationalist. On 28 November 2024, three days after the elections, Romanian Constitutional Court requested an official recount and verification of all ballots cast. The result was however, beyond dispute: the Romanians really did vote wrong!

It’s the social media’s fault!

The failure was blamed on social media, particularly TikTok, which apparently enabled interference in Romanian elections by exposing Romanians to information. This could not stand: Valerie Hyer, leader of EU Parliament's liberal political group "Renew Europe," called on TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew to appear before the European Parliament and answer for social media’s blunt interference in democracy.

To prevent this unforgivable crime, Romania's telecommunications regulator ANCOM demanded the suspension of the evil TikTok platform in Romania. The country’s Supreme Defense Council convened to discuss national security risks and the integrity of the nation’s electoral process. Pro-EU NGOs also helped by mobilizing Romanian students to protest Georgescu’s electoral victory. Finally, two days before the second round of elections, Romania’s Constitutional Court overturned the first round of voting and ordered entirely new elections.

However, more needed to be done to save democracy. Weeks of lawfare against Georgescu ensued, culminating with his arrest on 26 February this year as he was heading to register his candidacy for the May elections. Georgescu faced a criminal probe on six charges, including false statements about campaign financing, fraudulent use of digital technologies, promoting fascist organizations, and forming an antisemitic organization.

To defend Romania’s democracy from such criminal, fraud prone, fascistic and antisemitic candidates, the nation’s Central Electoral Bureau (BEC) barred Georgescu from running in new elections. The decision was upheld by the Constitutional Court on 11 March 2025 because, as BEC determined, his candidacy “did not meet the conditions of legality” and violated the obligations to defend democracy.

The exigent need for “tools” of democracy

For a fleeting moment, it seemed that Romania’s democracy had been saved. However, the misinformed, disinformed and deplorable Romanian voters voted wrong again on May 4, this time for AUR’s George Simion whose platform is very closely aligned with that of Calin Georgescu on key political issues. The first-round vote for Simion proved conclusively that the Romanians are simply incorrigible, so it was time for Ursula von der Leyen’s famous “tools,” needed in just such critical situations.

Recall, Ms. von der Leyen suggested that the EU had these special tools already in 2022 when Italy held elections and the fear was that the Italians too might vote wrong (due to Russian interference, of course). The suspicion that these special tools may have been used was corroborated by the former French European Commissioner for Digital Affairs, Mr. Thierry Breton who openly admitted to interfering in Romanian elections and warned that similar action could be taken in Germany, if the Germans too voted wrong. Furthermore, Pavel Durov, the CEO of Telegram said that they received a request from the French government to "silence Conservative voices in Romania"

Ultimately, the right candidate did win the elections in Romania, and as far as the European institutions are concerned, democracy has been rescued from the unworthy Romanians. When things get critical, saving democracy necessitates destroying democracy. Apparently, we live in such a time, since we, the people, appear to be “hardwired to fall for autocrats.” In fact, just yesterday The Guardian published a piece to that effect, implying that as a species, we are simply not worthy of our liberal democracies.

People may prefer autocrats

The Guardian cites a recent piece of research commissioned by Britain’s Channel 4, which showed that in Britain, “more than half of people aged between 13 and 27 would prefer the UK to be an authoritarian dictatorship.” But young Brits are not alone. As last fall’s Pew Global Attitudes Survey suggested, people in many countries are deeply dissatisfied with democracy. In the U.S., only 31% of respondents felt satisfied with democracy, while 68% felt dissatisfied (this may have improved since last November). In France, it’s 35% to 65%; in Britain, 39% to 60% (probably much worse since Keir Starmer’s “election.”) Here’s a graphic representation of Pew’s findings:

Ultimately, yesterday’s elections in Romania, EU’s electoral tools and the deteriorating trust in democratic institutions are manifestations of a class war between the rulers and the ruled which has a long historical track record. Based on that record, we can predict that where the ruling structures make a peaceful change of government impossible, a violent change will become increasingly likely.

If it won’t bend, it might break

As the stakes in the game grow bigger, the ruling structures are increasingly desperate to cling to power at all costs, setting them on a collision course against those over whom they rule. Structures that refuse to bend under pressure ultimately have to break, suggesting that the risk having violent social uprisings is rising among European nations. When and if we get to that point (it’s happened frequently enough through history) and the people take their democracies in their own hands, Ursula’s tools will no longer work.

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Today’s trading signals

With Friday’s closing prices we have the following changes for the Key Markets portfolio: