Silver's got a lot of catching up to do!

Key Markets report for Wednesday, July 16, 2025

At the end of May, I published the report titled, “Is silver at a tipping point?” suggesting that starting in late 2023, precious metals regained favor in the markets and both silver and gold nearly doubled in price. However, the two metals’ fluctuations diverged quite a bit: silver has been significantly more volatile, lagging behind gold, and at times moving in the opposite direction. Here’s the chart I posted at the time:

At the time (29 May 2025), silver was trading at around $33.50/tr.oz., but I suggested that, “silver could come unglued again and catch up with gold, or even overtake it.” The technical market signals on silver confirmed this might happen and I concluded that “it does look like silver is due for a bullish breakout.” Sure enough, the technical signals were valid and silver rallied higher by more than 16%, reaching at one point above $39/tr.oz.

However, looking at the relationship between two metals over a longer time horizon, it seems clear that either gold rallied too far, or silver lagged too much:

Gold has been gradually gaining ground over silver for nearly 15 years now: while silver appreciated by some 700% since 2000, gold appreciated 1,200%. The gold chart does not look like it’s peaked yet. After such a strong trending move, I expect that the peak might look like a long-ish, near-vertical surge. Silver, on the other hand, looks like its trend hasn’t even matured yet. Over the next few months (or years), we could see silver test its 2011 highs, close to $50/tr.oz. and likely exceed them.

For TrendCompass subscribers, these moves should be yielding handsome windfalls at the moment, hopefully with more to come.

To learn more about TrendCompass reports please check our main TrendCompass web page. We encourage you to also have a read through our TrendCompass User Manual page. For U.S. investors: an investable, fully managed portfolio based on I-System TrendFollowing is available from our partner advisory (more about it here).

Today’s trading signals

With yesterday’s closing prices we have the following changes for the Key Markets portfolio: