The assassination that backfired?

Key Markets report for Tuesday, 16 September 2025

​The assassination of Charlie Kirk on 10 September was not like other assassinations. It appears to have unleashed a storm that won’t die down soon and could lead to significant changes in the relationship between the U.S. and Israel. On Friday, 12 September Blumenthal and Anya Parampil published an explosive article titled, "​Charlie Kirk refused Netanyahu funding offer, was ‘frightened’ by pro-Israel forces before death, friend reveals​."

The article shed light on the mounting pressure Kirk was under from pro-Israel forces in the US. According to Blumenthal, the piece "hit like a sledgehammer," particularly within the conservative movement which now seems to be on a soul-searching quest about Israel.

Bill Ackman summons Kirk

People are increasingly speaking out and some of them provided insights that could prove relevant to the mystery of Charlie Kirk's assassination. Among them were individuals with firsthand knowledge of a contentious meeting convened during the first week of August​ by billionaire investor Bill Ackman. ​Ackman is a staunch supporter of Israel and has a close relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Kirk "was summoned" to the meeting along with a group of young conservative influencers. According to Blumenthal's sources, Kirk was "hammered by Ackman and others" for allowing anti-Zionist speakers to his events. Kirk was planning to host many of these same speakers at his future "Turning Point USA America Fest" event in December. Some of these Israel critics included people like Tucker Carlson, Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor-Green and the Jewish anti-Zionist podcaster Dave Smith. According to multiple sources, Ackman convened this meeting in order to "bully Charlie Kirk into submission."

Kirk however, refused all the generous offers of funding along with the offer to travel to Israel and meet with Netanyahu, suggesting that he himself had a change of heart about Israel. What was perhaps equally alarming for the pro-Israel networks, Kirk was also distancing himself from his own Protestant evangelical faith and was starting to attend Catholic mass with his wife Erika. Interestingly, in yesterday’s ​interview with Max Blumenthal, Judge Andrew Napolitano mentioned that there have been other influential converts to Catholicism in the US including Vice President JD Vance and Candace Owens.​

Most important asset became a liability

About one in four American adults - some 64 million people - are Christian evangelicals and they represent the largest and most passionate group of Israel supporters in the US. This is also the group from which Kirk drew the bulk of his following. Without a doubt, as a true-believer and unwavering supporter of Israel, Kirk was an extremely valuable influencer for the Zionist cause, promoting the "Judeo-Christian" worldviews (whatever that is), especially for the younger conservatives.

In this sense Kirk was a unique and extremely influential figure in the US conservative movement. Max Blumenthal made the point that he was also "irreplaceable," and couldn't be removed from the organization he created.​ In that, Kirk was "the most important gentile asset that Israel might have had today because he was preaching the pro-Israel gospel to the young people." The signs were mounting that in distancing himself from Israel and leaning closer to Catholic faith, Kirk was losing his pro-Zionist zeal. Furthermore, according to Kirk's close friend cited by Blumenthal, Kirk had an intense dislike for Benjamin Netanyahu.

Thus, the alarm that prompted Ackman to call him to account was that if Kirk lost faith, the risk was that he could lead the American conservative youth in the "wrong" direction and inflict inestimable damage to Israel's support in the US. Suspicions that Israel could be behind Kirk's assassination were inflamed by reports from individuals who were close to Kirk and who said that he himself was very concerned about Israeli supporters bearing down on him.

Besieged by hyper-paranoid zealots

In an interview with Megyn Kelly, given around the time of his meeting with Bill Ackman & friends, Kirk conveyed the pressure he was under. Choosing, as he said, the most charitable words he could find he said that, "The people who are attacking me are in a hyper-paranoid state.​ ... I have less ability ... to criticize Israeli government ... than actual Israelis do."

​The impression of guilt was bolstered by the conduct of some of Bill Ackman’s friends. Max Blumenthal identified a number of people who were present at his gathering and reached out to them by phone. He said that every person he called was, "flustered, freaked out by my call ... kind of in a state of panic. They're all nervous about being identified with this meeting."

Netanyahu’s busy non-denial denials

​The suspicion that Kirk’s assassination was linked to Israel prompted Benjamin​Netanyahu himself to weigh in on the issue. First he delivered a eulogy to Charlie Kirk by video and held up a letter that Kirk had supposedly sent him. This was supposed to convince the public that the relationship between him and Kirk was warm and cordial. Netanyahu also said that he invited Kirk to Jerusalem some two weeks before he was killed (which Kirk declined, but Netanyahu forgot to mention that part). He also didn’t miss the chance to insinuate that islamists were behind Kirk's assassination even before any suspects were identified.

Of course, all this only added fuel to the dumpster fire of conspiracies, so Netanyahu issued a bizarre non-denial denial of Israel’s involvement. He slammed conspiracy theories, everybody hating the Israelis, and blaming them for changing the orbit of the moon and “pushing the sun,” but he failed to state equivocally and explicitly that Israel wasn’t behind Kirk’s assassination. Well, if you are universally recognized as a prolific and pathological liar, you shouldn’t be surprised when nobody believes a word you say. For his part, Bill Ackman also made some posts on X, gushed about how much he admired Kirk.

What matters is what people believe - not what they know

We may not know the truth about who killed Kirk or why. But at this stage, even as the arrogant servants of power like to say smugly, what is true and what people know is not so important. What’s important is what they believe and right now what people increasingly believe is that Israel is at the top of the list of suspects behind Charlie Kirk’s assassination. Nonstop lying and obfuscations coupled with routine and proudly owned assassinations of their opponents and critics by the Israeli government will greatly bolster that belief.

And it appears that even Donald Trump is worried. Based on testimonies from White House insiders with access to the President, Max Blumenthal said that Trump “is very afraid of Netanyahu.” As an example, Blumenthal explained how, during one of his many trips to Washington this year, Israeli agents placed electronic devices on Secret Service emergency response vehicles on two separate occasions."

This was not the first time Israelis got caught spying on Trump. ​In 2019, three former high ranking US officials told Politico that Israelis placed Stingray cell phone surveillance devices around the White House and in sensitive locations around Washington DC to spy on ​Trump's phone communications. The only people who could get that kind of access to the White House would be Netanyahu and his security team.

This could prove very damaging for Israel

Ultimately, this suggests that the “special relationship” between the US and Israel isn’t quite so special as we’ve been led to believe, but it also supports my own suspicion that Donald Trump actually loathes Benjamin Netanyahu and that the feeling is mutual. Over time, this could further damage US support for Israel which has been creating and provoking enemies with reckless abandon. Without the unconditional support from the US, Israel might not be able to sustain itself for much longer and if Israel falls, the resulting transformation of the Middle East could see an end to Western hegemony in the region.

To learn more about TrendCompass reports please check our main TrendCompass web page. We encourage you to also have a read through our TrendCompass User Manual page. For U.S. investors: an investable, fully managed portfolio based on I-System TrendFollowing is available from our partner advisory (more about it here).

Today’s trading signals

We had no new signals with yesterday’s closing prices. Your exposure should remain unchanged, as follows:

You can access the full report is at the following link:

TrendCompass Key Markets report for 16 September 2025

Best regards,

Alex Krainer