UK's Operation Unthinkable: are we in it?

Key Markets report for Friday, 6 Jun 2025

Author and historian Sylvain LaForest wrote that, “our knowledge of the Second World War was mostly redacted by American and Western historians that carried over time a deeply fake idea of reality. In an ironic way, this makes history a very interesting and lively subject today…” Just how deeply fake this idea of reality has been is something we are increasingly discovering as history unfolds before our eyes, in ways that only a few years ago would seem incredible and very much unthinkable.

Today’s events are challenging nearly everything we thought we knew about our modern global order which, not so long ago, seemed so close to perfection that many believed that we had reached the end of history. Part of the fascination is that much of what we are witnessing today seems to have significant, but hard to explain connections to events that happened many decades ago. Little by little, however, researchers and historians are piecing the truth together, thanks to newly discovered evidence.

Submit Russia to our will

In 1998, the UK declassified documents related to the “Operation Unthinkable,” a secret plan to attack Russia. The document was drafted by the British Joint Planning Staff and submitted to Winston Churchill on 22 May 1945. It is available at the UK National Archives at this link. The immediate consideration explored by the Joint Planning Staff was a surprise attack against Russia by the UK and the US, supported by the Polish and German troops. The date for the start of hostilities was set at July 1, 1945.

The overall “political objective” of the operation was, to submit Russia “to our will”:

“A quick success might induce the Russians to submit to our will at least for the time being; but it might not. … if they want total war, they are in the position to have it.”

A total war is necessary

Note, all this hard thinking was going on in London even as World War 2 was still raging and the Soviet Union, allied with UK, US and France, was in the final stages of fighting Hitler’s Wermacht at the Eastern front. But defeating Nazi Germany obviously wasn’t the top priority of the British establishment: their top priority was defeating Russia. To pursue it, the Joint Planning Staff advanced two hypotheses: (1) that “a total war is necessary,” and (2) that “a quick success would suffice to gain our political objective.” However, the quick victory in a surprise attack might only yield a temporary result. A lasting one would require victory in a total war:

“The only way we can achieve our object with certainty and lasting results is by victory in a total war.”

Achieving this, however, would have to be a very long term project:

To achieve the decisive defeat of Russia in a total war would require, in particular, the mobilisation of manpower to counteract their present enormous manpower resources. This is a very long term project and would involve: the deployment in Europe of a large proportion of the vast resources of the United States; and the re-equipment and reorganization of German manpower and of all the Western allies.

It will take a very long time

In conclusion, the Joint Planning Staff again reiterated that, “the only thing certain is that to win it would take us a very long time.” They didn’t define exactly how long a time they were talking about, but it could be inferred from the document that they were talking about years, if not decades.

Fast forward 80 years, and it would appear that the UK is as committed as ever to a total war against Russia, first to the last Ukrainian and whatever else it takes thereafter, even if the conflict goes nuclear. Over the recent months, British officials, including the PM Keir Starmer frequently stated how important it was for the US to provide the backstop to the allies war effort in Ukraine and to act as the guarantor of Ukraine’s security.

Vast resources of the US are essential

In addition to the Operation Unthinkable, this all echoes Britain’s 1947 doctrine, articulated in the “Fundamentals of Our Defence Policy” In reaffirming UK’s undiluted hostility towards Russia (“The most likely and most formidable threat to our interests comes from Russia”), the document stated that, “Ensuring that we have the active and early support of the United States of America and of the Western European States” was essential.

It is never clear however, how or where exactly Russia threatens “our interests,” other than perhaps, refusing to “submit to our will.” Back in 2021, the then head of the British Army, General Sir Mark Carleton Smith suggested as much when he said that Whitehall’s major problem is that Russia is “seeking its own independent sphere of influence separate to any American-backed global order or rule book.”

Britain is an island nation in the Atlantic and Russia is a continental power on the Eurasian continent, and there’s no overlap in their geographical spheres of influence. Why exactly Britain needs to defeat Russia in a total war is something verging on psychotic and insane. It would be very helpful if the British establishment spelled out clearly what those “our interests” actually are.

As hostilities continue to escalate, there’s little, if any evidence that the UK ever changed its stance towards Russia between the 1940s and today. The conduct of its foreign policy, unchanged over the decades regardless of which government is in power, suggests that its obsession with winning a total war against Russia remains all consuming for the British political class. This poses a massive danger to the whole world by now. As Ukraine is facing an inevitable defeat against Russia, Britain is looking to escalate the conflict with nuclear weapons.

Some guiding star and high cabal…

Yesterday, Ukrainian journalist Diana Panchenko shared a post on X featuring one of her compatriot politicians confirming that the UK is willing and ready to help Ukraine build nuclear weapons. The madness is truly hard to fathom, calling to mind the words of Winston Churchill upon learning about the allies brutal bombardment of Rotterdam:

“Unrestricted submarine warfare. Unrestricted air bombings - this is total war… Time and ocean and some guiding star and high cabal have made us what we are.”

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Today’s trading signals

With yesterday’s closing prices we have the following changes for the Key Markets portfolio: