Will Trump's peace hold? Pray it does!

Key Markets report for Thursday, 9 October 2025

On Wednesday, 8 October 2025, President Donald Trump announced a U.S.-brokered ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, based on his 20-point peace plan. The announcement, which came a day after the second anniversary of the war’s beginning marks the first phase of efforts to end the war. Importantly Trump obtained a buy-in for the deal from a number of important regional players and Muslim nations like Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, UAE, Turkey, Pakistan and Indonesia.

At this point, 48 hostages remained in Gaza (20 believed alive, 28 presumed dead). The deal required:

• Immediate cessation of Israeli military operations upon Israeli cabinet approval.

• Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) withdrawal to an “agreed-upon line” in Gaza within 24 hours.

• In exchange, Hamas’s release of all remaining hostages (living and deceased) within 72 hours of the IDF withdrawal.

• Israel to release nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, including some serving life sentences (but excluding certain high-profile figures like Nukhba Force members involved in the October 7 attack).

• Full humanitarian aid access to Gaza and guarantees from mediators (U.S., Qatar, Egypt, Turkey) to monitor implementation and prevent resumption of hostilities.

The way the peace deal is structured, whoever fails to comply with its provisions will mark themselves as the peace breakers and the stakes are quite high with accountability baked into the deal. This may be why even Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet approved it yesterday, on October 9.

Israel’s acceptance triggered the timeline according to which the IDF must begin to withdraw within today. Hamas has 72 hours (ending on Tuesday, 14 October) to release the Israeli hostages. This 72-hour deadline was central to the Trump plan to ensure swift action from both sides. During talks in Egypt, Hamas has demanded further concessions like deeper IDF withdrawals and the release of specific prisoners.

Has the war fully and completely ended?

Celebrations erupted in Tel Aviv and Gaza City on October 9 upon announcement, with some Gazans chanting support for Trump and the deal. Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya declared that the war “fully and completely ended,” citing U.S. guarantees. However, this remains to be seen.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu allegedly said that Hamas’ response to the Gaza peace plan was “nothing to celebrate.” According to Axios, Trump rebuked him “I don’t know why you’re always so fu**ing negative. This is a win. Take it.” But even if Trump managed to maneuver Netanyahu into cooperating, the rest of his cabinet’s support might not hold.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich already declared that, “Immediately after hostage return, Israel will continue to strive with all its might for the true eradication of Hamas and the genuine disarmament of Gaza, so that it no longer poses threat to Israel.” On the ground, tensions persist and threaten to derail the agreed de-escalation. Yesterday, one IDF soldier was reported killed by a Hamas sniper in Gaza City and this morning, the IDF was filmed shooting tank shells at Palestinian civilians. Reports out of Gaza suggest that some 53 Palestinians have been killed today.

Israel no longer keen on war with Iran?

One of the parties missing in this deal is the region’s 800-pound gorilla: Iran. This prompted a suspicion by some observers that the whole peace deal is calculated to give relief to Israel so that it could focus on a renewed attack on Iran, which is presumed to be forthcoming, and which is widely expected by the Iranians themselves. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin himself weighed in yesterday, 9 October, and stated that, “Israel is no longer interested in a Clash with Iran, Israel asked us to convey messages to Tehran.”

During a meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Putin said he had received signals from Israeli leadership indicating that Tel Aviv seeks resolution and agreement rather than any confrontation. This came amid the recent activation of a Russia-Iran strategic partnership and follows a phone call between Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, highlighting Russia’s role as a diplomatic intermediary between the two nations.

This could be a massive defeat for the empire

Given everything that’s transpired over the last five or six years, it is not easy to be optimistic. Gaza peace plan entails disarmament of Hamas, which Hamas might not accept. It also entails Palestinian statehood which Tel Aviv is unlikely to accept. But if the peace holds and if it is true that Israel won’t renew its hostilities against Iran, the implications for the region are nothing short of massive.

I believe that Israel’s key role has been to destabilize the region per requirements of the Western empire whose requirements are dictated by the imperative to maintain and defend its hegemony over the region. The key obstacle to their hegemony today is Iran, which is why Israel was aiming for regime change. Today, that objective would be difficult to attain and Israel has been very depleted and exhausted in fighting wars on 7 fronts.

While it’s possible that Israel’s message to Iran via Moscow could be a ruse to get the Iranians to drop their guard while Israel prepares its attack, it’s also possible that Netanyahu has finally conceded defeat. This seemed very unlikely until just a few days ago: if the governing coalition he leads splintered, it would mean the end of Netanyahu’s political life.

Insurance policy for Netanyahu

But even that risk appears to have been mitigated: Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid committed to provide Netanyahu a “safety net” to prevent his government from falling in any Knesset vote. This could have been the insurance policy that sealed the peace deal. Do we dare be optimistic that Trump’s peace will actually stick? I don’t know, but if there was a worthy cause to pray for, this must be it!

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Today’s trading signals

With yesterday’s closing prices we have the following changes for the Key Markets portfolio: